State officials are confident that Hurricane Milton won’t be a crushing blow to Florida’s recovering insurance market, despite analysts’ predictions.
Although the state is still assessing the destruction from the Category 3 storm — which includes at least four people killed — property damage didn’t appear to be as severe as many people were expecting.
“It appears that the once-in-a-lifetime-catastrophe event was largely avoided,” Office of Insurance Regulation Commissioner Mike Yaworsky said in a statement Thursday.
“The marketplace is poised to weather the impacts of these storms effectively,” he added, pointing to recent reforms that include making it harder to sue insurance companies.
On Wednesday, the ratings agency AM Best wrote that Milton “poses a significant threat to the Florida property insurance market,” in part because furniture and other debris left outside following Hurricane Helene two weeks ago could become destructive airborne projectiles. That threat largely hasn’t materialized in Tampa Bay so far.
READ MORE: Take a look at the damage from Hurricane Milton across hardest hit parts of Florida
Wall Street analysts predicted the storm could cause anywhere from $50 billion to $175 billion in insured losses, Barron’s reported. Those amounts could crush some of the small insurance companies that dominate Florida’s market, leading to further instability and future rate increases.
When asked about those projections Thursday morning, Gov. Ron DeSantis flatly dismissed them.
“How the hell would a Wall Street analyst be able to know? It’s been dark all day,” DeSantis said. “Give me a break on some of this stuff.”
Concerns were also raised ahead of Milton about the impact on state-run Citizens Property Insurance, Florida’s largest insurer with about 1.2 million homeowners policies.
About 20% of those policies are in Sarasota, Manatee, Pinellas and Hillsborough, amounting to about $88 billion in exposure for Citizens in counties in the storm’s forecasted cone.
If Citizens doesn’t have money to pay out claims, it can levy assessments on everyone’s insurance policies, from auto to pet insurance, to pick up the tab. But that won’t be necessary after Milton, Citizens spokesperson Michael Peltier said in a statement Thursday.
“Citizens is in a strong financial position and able handle all claims without the need for surcharges or assessments,” Peltier said.
Homeowners’ policies cover damage from wind, fires, water leaks, theft and other issues — but not damage from flooding. That damage is covered by the federal National Flood Insurance Program or private flood policies.
That’s a major reason why Hurricane Helene, which caused massive flooding in Tampa Bay, was expected to be a “manageable event” for Florida insurers. That differentiation could also play a role in handling damage from Milton.
Florida’s insurance market has seen a series of booms and busts since 1992′s Hurricane Andrew upended the industry.
The latest crisis started after the state’s decade-long drought of major hurricanes ended in 2017. Since then, premiums have skyrocketed and companies have withdrawn or shuttered.
The primary response by Republican lawmakers and DeSantis was to make it harder to sue insurance companies.
The market has begun to stabilize, with many companies requesting no rate increases or small reductions this year. On Thursday, regulators announced that USAA was “reaffirming” its commitment to do business in the state.
But homeowners’ policies have not gone down meaningfully, putting pressure on legislators who say that property insurance remains their top constituent issue.
On Wednesday, Broward County Republican state Rep. Chip LaMarca posted on X that he wanted to work with lawmakers in hurricane-hit areas “to drastically change how we do insurance in Florida.”
“I don’t care what the solution is, but I want to find one for every Floridian,” he wrote. “We must fix it.”
Anyone needing to file Citizens claims can do so through the myPolicy customer portal or by calling Citizens at 1-866-411-2742.
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